CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-13T02:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-13T02:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33385/-1
CME Note: Bright wide CME off the southwest limb, likely associated with the M1.2 flare from AR 3811 (S13W91) peaking at 2024-0913T00:00Z. Coronal signatures include a large ejecta seen in AIA 131 and in SUVI 284 starting at 2024-0913T00:27Z and a wide opening of field lines on/behind the limb in SUVI 284 starting at 2024-0913T01:24Z. High-rising post-eruptive arcades are seen in AIA 193 on limb (and less prominently a few more southward on the disk).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-15T08:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Sep 14 1047 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images starting from 13 Sep 01:30. This event is associated with an M1.6 flare located at the west solar limb and has an estimated speed of 1250 km/s. A glancing blow is expected to affect the Earth's atmosphere early on 15 Sep. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # #Lead Time: 20.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-09-14T11:50Z
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